Research

Abstract: U.S. labor mobility has declined steadily since the 1980s, with employer-to-employer (EE) transitions falling by nearly half. I develop a general equilibrium  model of firm dynamics with on-the-job search along a wage-indexed job ladder to study the role of the slowdown in U.S. labor force growth on this long-run decline. In the model, job creation at high-paying firms triggers EE moves that cascade down the ladder through costless replacement hiring. When labor force growth slows, firm entry falls, the firm distribution ages, and job creation shifts away from the top of the ladder. The calibrated model attributes more than 60% of the observed decline in EE transitions since the 1980s to this channel, while matching several key data moments. An accounting decomposition shows that four-fifths of this decline comes from the level of job creation, with the remainder coming from job creation shifting away from high-wage rungs and a resulting decline in search effort. Counterfactual exercises connect labor supply policy to labor mobility: halting immigration since the 1980s would have led to a roughly 20% larger decline in EE transitions.

Abstract: We study how inflation shapes household expenditure responses to a predictable nominal income shock. Using novel monthly administrative bank data from Argentina, an economy with persistent inflation, we examine the effects of the Aguinaldo, a large and recurrent bonus paid to formal salaried workers. We document two main findings. First, the bonus triggers a sharp increase in expenditure on impact, preceded by anticipatory spending and followed by a partial reversal, such that the cumulative three-month effect is economically large even though the payment is nominally anticipated. Second, inflation amplifies this entire response profile: a household with inflation exposure one standard deviation above the mean exhibits a cumulative response nearly twice as large as a household with average exposure. Moreover, heterogeneity along this dimension generates larger differences in the MPC than heterogeneity across the full liquidity distribution. Inflation does not simply scale up expenditure responses; it reshapes their timing, persistence, and interaction with liquidity constraints. Our findings have direct implications for the design of transfer policies in inflationary environments.

Abstract: How much does domestic labor mobility matter for aggregate outcomes and tax revenues? To what extent it limits the scope of tax progressivity and redistribution? We develop a macroeconomic environment with heterogeneous households, who decide on their labor supply, housing, savings, and location. We calibrate this model to the United States and evaluate two sets of tax experiments: changes in income-tax progressivity and the enactment of wealth taxes. We then evaluate in each case the role of endogenous migration responses. We find that greater income-tax progressivity can lead to increases in the regional population share of a rich location, but regional per-capita revenue gains diminish fast and eventually disappear. In contrast, the scope for  heavier taxation of high-income households is much larger if households are unresponsive in their migration decisions. These findings highlight the role of household mobility constraints in the macroeconomy, even when tax changes may attract residents or produce little change in regional population. Household mobility can sharply limit revenue gains even when aggregate population responses suggest otherwise.

Abstract: In Paraguay, an employment protection law (EPL) sharply increases firing costs for formal sector workers once they reach 10 years of tenure with an employer. Using administrative data, we document a sharp rise in separation rates immediately before the 10-year mark, followed by a substantial decline afterward. While prior research has examined the labor market effects of similar policies in other settings, we extend the analysis to a context with widespread informality and a contributory pension system. In Paraguay, workers must accumulate at least 15 years of formal sector contributions to qualify for a pension upon retirement, regardless of whether these contributions are continuous or with the same employer. Workers who fail to meet this threshold receive no pension and effectively face a labor income tax without corresponding benefits. We hypothesize that the EPL, by raising early-career separation risks, reduces workers’ ability to accumulate the necessary years of contributions, discouraging formal sector participation and reinforcing reliance on informal employment. This paper lays out a framework to study these dynamics and explores the broader implications of employment protection laws in economies with large informal sectors and contributory pension systems.

Abstract: We study how uncertainty, instrumented by national and local elections, affect individual consumption, debt, and savings using administrative data from the largest bank in Buenos Aires Province, which includes detailed information on monthly transactions, expenditures, credit use, and savings balances. Contrary to most of the existing literature, we initially find that uncertainty is associated with increases in both consumption and debt. However, the bank often releases promotional campaigns during electoral periods offering discounts and installment payments at fixed interest rates that may alter household financial behavior. Once we account for the compounded effect of these promotions, the relationship reverses: at the election date we observe lower consumption and reduced borrowing, consistent with a precautionary savings motive. Our results suggest that the apparent expansion in spending around elections is driven not by optimism or political uncertainty per se, but by promotional incentives that temporarily ease liquidity constraints. We further explore heterogeneity in responses by age, income, and other sociodemographic characteristics, highlighting differences in the transmission of political and financial shocks across groups.

Abstract: Since 1994 Argentina has failed to honor its Constitution by not passing a law that fully determines intergovernmental fiscal transfers at a national level. This paper uses an innovative structural framework to estimate, and ultimately propose, a new distribution scheme for such transfers. The structural approach allows for the recovery of deep parameters to accurately estimate the expenditure needs for each province, which can then be used to establish the distribution rates that should be assigned to each jurisdiction.